Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

Credit risk pricing and the rationality of lending decision-making within dual banking systems: A parametric approach

The reduction of non-performing loans, and making correct provisions for them, plays a primary role in the management and minimization of banking credit risk. However, these actions depend primarily upon the cost at which banks may dispose of these bad loans. Hence, this study aims to perceive the price of banks’ credit risk via estimating the shadow price of non-performing loans. We assess and compare the perceived price of the credit risk of Islamic and conventional banks operating in 9 countries from the Middle East and Asia, using a quadratic directional distance function. Following this, we evaluate the impact of different settings of directional vectors on shadow prices by conducting a risk-sensitivity analysis. Applying bootstrap regression, the factors affecting NPLs’ prices are further investigated. The paper concludes that the estimation of the shadow prices of bad loans can provide important elements in favor of credit risk management and, therefore, credit risk mitigation.     

The effect of minimum wage on firm markup: Evidence from China

Our paper examines the impact of minimum wage on firm markup in China. We find that minimum wage generates a positive effect on firm markup. More value-enhancing innovative activities, TFP improvement, and efficient labor resource allocation are the potential channels. Further, the positive influence of minimum wage is more pronounced for privately-owned firms, for firms with higher labor intensity and firms with less financial constraints. Besides, these findings are generally robust to different estimation methods. Our results provide new insights into understanding the channels through which labor regulation may cause the change of markup for the emerging markets countries.     

最低工资标准、人力资本扩张与企业成本加成*

本文以人力资本扩张为切入点，构建了最低工资、人力资本扩张影响企业成本加成的理论框架，并使用中国1998-2013年284个地级市的工业企业数据进行了经验研究。结论显示：最低工资上调会显著抑制企业成本加成的提升，削弱了企业的市场势力，但该抑制效应在人力资本扩张的背景下得以缓解。同时本文通过进一步分组回归发现，最低工资标准与人力资本扩张对企业成本加成具有明显的异质性影响。因此，适度、稳定调整最低工资标准及推动人力资本质量的整体提升有助于保持企业成本加成能力及其动态竞争力。     

On the heterogeneous short‐term effects of minimum wages on labor demand

A strand of the literature documents no effects or even positive effects of a higher minimum wage on employment. This evidence is frequently linked to the existence of monopsonistic labor markets or search frictions. However, empirical studies show that these findings could be related to a low short‐term minimum wage–employment elasticity in a competitive labor market. We show that mixed theoretical employment effects of a minimum wage policy can be predicted in the short term in assignment economies with price‐taker agents and no search frictions.     

One size may not fit all: Welfare benefits and cost reductions with optional differentiated household electricity rates

We consider optional time-of-use (TOU) pricing for residential consumers, offered by a publicly regulated electricity supplier, as an alternative to a single TOU or flat rate structure. An equilibrium model explores and quantifies the effects of such pricing on welfare, consumption, and production costs. The supplier offers to each household a menu of possible rate structures obtained by maximizing a collective welfare function subject to three restrictions: Pareto efficiency, incentive compatibility, sufficiency of supplier revenue to cover costs. Simulations based on realistic calibration of the model demonstrate that optional pricing can increase overall consumer welfare and reduce average cost.     

The heterogeneity of beauty premium in China: Evidence from CFPS

Using a nationwide representative sample of the Chinese population, we examine the effect of physical appearance on the hourly wage. Our theoretical framework that connects physical appearance and the hourly wage has two predictions. First, the beauty premium is larger for high-skilled workers than for low-skilled workers. Second, this statistical-based discrimination arises from the hiring manager’s belief that beauty contributes to productivity through non-cognitive skills. Empirical results confirm both predictions. Good-looking individuals earn roughly 5.4% more than the rest, and bad-looking individuals earn roughly 3.3% less than the rest. Moreover, quantile estimates show that the effect of physical appearance at the 0.75 quantile is more than twice as the one at the 0.25 quantile. Finally, social skills, communication skills, and self-confidence are three transmission channels through which physical appearance can positively affect one’s hourly wage in our sample. Our findings imply that the beauty premium is widespread in the labor market and relevant anti-discrimination regulations are needed.     

The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy

How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push-type shocks. Our proposed inflation target rule calls for the target to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock, which is essentially a makeup strategy. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor-type rule, significantly reduces inflation fluctuations originating from cost-push shocks and mitigates the stabilization trade-off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy.     

The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.